Forecasts and interest rate decisions

The Executive Board of the Riksbank holds six scheduled monetary policy meetings a year at which it decides on the monetary policy stance and on changes in the repo rate. A press release is published the day after each monetary policy meeting. This contains the most important reasons for and the considerations behind the decision. The press release also contains the Riksbank's forecasts regarding future developments in economic activity and inflation and a description of the monetary policy that is currently considered to be well balanced. Following publication, a press conference is held with the Governor of the Riksbank at which the media are given the opportunity to ask questions. A Monetary Policy Report is also published in connection with the monetary policy meetings. This Report contains the Riksbank's forecasts for the economy and inflation in the coming years.

 

The work ahead of the monetary policy meetings begins at the Monetary Policy Department. On the basis of a discussion of financial conditions and forecasts of developments abroad and in the Swedish economy, as well as relevant uncertainties and risks, the Department produces an internal document outlining its view of how economic activity and inflation will develop in the period ahead. The Department also produces alternative scenarios for potential economic developments. All of this is then reported to the Executive Board. This document is gradually revised to form a Monetary Policy Report and functions as a basis for the monetary policy decision.

 

Minutes that give an account of the discussion that led up to the repo-rate decision are published approximately two weeks after the monetary policy meeting. The minutes state how each of the members reasoned with regard to monetary policy.

 

More information about the decision-making process, the factors that influence repo-rate decisions, and how the Riksbank communicates can be found under the links in the menu.

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