Policy rate raised by 0.25 percentage points to 4 per cent
Press release The Riksbank’s rate increases and the falling energy prices have contributed to inflation beginning to fall. Developments are thus going in the right direction, but inflationary pressures in the Swedish economy are still too high. For inflation to fall back and stabilise around the target of 2 per cent within a reasonable period of time, the Executive Board has therefore decided to raise the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4 per cent. The forecast for the policy rate indicates that it could be raised further.
Inflationary pressures are too high
The substantial and rapid interest rate hikes by central banks since the beginning of last year have contributed to reducing global inflation and dampening economic activity. Many central banks have now begun to adjust their monetary policy in more gradual steps, but have at the same time signalled that rate cuts lie far in the future.
Inflation is also falling in Sweden. The rate of increase in energy and food prices has slowed significantly, which is positive. But inflation pressures are still too high. Service prices continue to rise at a rapid pace, which, together with the unjustifiably weak krona, are keeping up inflation and increasing the risk that inflation will not continue to fall and stabilise around target sufficiently quickly.
Policy rate raised so inflation will be low and stable
A high rate of inflation is problematic for the economy as a whole and is being felt by households with small margins in particular. To ensure that inflation continues downwards and stabilises around the target within a reasonable period of time, monetary policy needs to be tightened further. The Executive Board has therefore decided to raise the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4 per cent.
The forecast for the policy rate indicates that it could be raised further. As before, the assessment is that monetary policy needs to be contractionary for a longer period of time for inflation to fall back and stabilise close to the target of 2 per cent.
New information on developments and how they are expected to affect the economic outlook and inflation prospects will be decisive in determining the monetary policy stance.
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 Q3** | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 8.4 (8.4) | 8.6 (8.9) | 4.6 (4.3) | 2.4 (2.3) | 1.8 |
| CPIF | 7.7 (7.7) | 5.9 (5.9) | 2.5 (2.4) | 1.8 (1.8) | 2.0 |
| GDP | 2.8 (2.8) | -0.8 (-0.5) | -0.1 (0.0) | 1.9 (1.8) | 2.6 |
| Unemployment, per cent | 7.5 (7.5) | 7.4 (7.5) | 8.3 (8.2) | 8.3 (8.3) | 8.0 |
| Policy rate, per cent | 0.8 (0.8) | 3.5 (3.5) | 4.1 (4.1) | 4.0 (4.0) | 3.7 |
* Annual percentage change, annual and quarterly averages respectively
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Report from June 2023 is shown in brackets.
** Calendar-adjusted GDP growth and seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment in 2026 Q3.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
| 2023 Q3 | 2023 Q4 | 2024 Q3 | 2025 Q3 | 2026 Q3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy rate | 3.75 (3.75) | 4.03 (3.99) | 4.10 (4.05) | 4.04 (4.00) | 3.69 |
* Per cent, quarterly mean values
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Report from June 2023 is shown in brackets.
Source: The Riksbank
The decision on the policy rate will apply with effect from 27 September. The minutes of the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting will be published on 2 October. A press conference with Governor of the Riksbank Erik Thedéen and Åsa Olli Segendorf, Head of the Monetary Policy Department, will be held today at 11:00 at the Riksbank, but pre-registered journalists can also participate and ask questions via Zoom. Press cards or the equivalent are required to participate. The press conference will be broadcast live on riksbank.se. Journalists who wish to participate and ask questions via Zoom must pre-register with the press office, either by telephone 08-787 0200 or by e-mail to susanne.meyer@riksbank.se, no later than 10:00 on 21 September.