Macro indicators and forecasts

The Riksbank’s monetary policy decisions are based on forecasts of economic developments in Sweden and abroad. To be able to forecast future developments the Riksbank must have an idea of how both the supply and demand for goods and services are developing. Moreover, the Riksbank must have an idea of how inflation, the exchange rate and the labour market will develop in the period ahead. This is achieved by studying and using different indicators and variables, such as how quickly the economy is growing, how many people are unemployed, how much is produced during one hour (productivity), developments in the financial markets and many other things.

The Riksbank uses a variety of macro indicators to analyse developments in the Swedish economy. Macro indicators is a generic term for variables that describe the current situation in the economy or the immediate future.

Most of the macro indicators used by the Riksbank are published by others, such as Statistics Sweden, the National Institute of Economic Research, Prospera, OMX and Eurostat. But some indicators are calculated and processed at the Riksbank, including measures of underlying inflation and the resource utilisation indicator (RU indicator). These indicators are used in the Riksbank’s continuous analysis of the Swedish economy and they are published in the Monetary Policy Report or used in the monetary policy decision guidance.

These macro indicators are published as and when they can be updated with new outcomes for input data. This means that inflation measures are published once a month, and once a quarter for resource utilisation.

The Riksbank has stopped publishing estimates of wage outcomes

The Riksbank has stopped publishing estimated of definitive outcomes for wages in the economy as a whole (wage algorithm) according to short-term wage statistics. This type of estimate can be obtained from the National Mediation Office.

Link to the National Mediation Office

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Updated 02/04/2024