Figure 2 shows how the various core measures interact with the Riksbank's measure of resource utilisation (the RU indicator).^[11] See Lovéus (2023). The curves refer to estimated correlation coefficients calculated for the period from the first quarter of 2000 to the third quarter of 2023. The leftmost lines in the chart show the degree of contemporaneous correlation, i.e. when the core measures in a given quarter, t, are matched with resource utilisation in the same quarter, t (see period 0 in the chart). They then show the correlation between the core measures and resource utilisation in the previous quarter, t-1 (1), against resource utilisation two quarters ago, t-2 (2) and so on. If the correlation is highest in, for example, t-6 (6), this means that the correlation between the core measure and resource utilisation is highest if the RU indicator is lagged by six quarters.

No measure stands out and is more correlated with the RU indicator than the CPIF. The highest correlation between the RU indicator and inflation measures is found after 3-5 quarters (see Figure 2). The correlation between the RU indicator and measures based on monthly percentage changes generally appears to be slightly lower compared to measures based on annual rates of change.^[12] If the correlations are calculated using data only up to 2021, before inflation started to rise, roughly the same ranking between the measures is maintained. But the time lag for maximum correlation will be a few quarters later.

Figure 2. Correlation between different measures of inflation and the RU indicator with different lags Percentage points