The Business Survey's new indicator of economic activity - an early temperature gauge of the Swedish economy

A new indicator of economic activity

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A new indicator of economic activity

The robustness of the Business Survey indicator over time

Published: 27 October 2023

The answers to the Business Survey questions are never revised, but the Business Survey indicator is re-estimated after each survey round. The weights given to the variables in the indicator by the principal component analysis may therefore vary depending on when the estimate is carried out. To examine the extent to which the indicator is revised when the dataset is updated with new observations after a completed survey, it has been estimated in real time for each quarter from 2013 to 2023 (see Figure 4 in the Appendix). It is natural that the indicator is revised more in the beginning as new information is added to a smaller dataset, but as the figure shows, the revisions become smaller as the dataset becomes more comprehensive. Although the weights vary slightly among the first estimates, the real-time estimates show that the indicator is a robust summarising measure of the companies’ responses that is not particularly sensitive to new information.