The Business Survey's new indicator of economic activity - an early temperature gauge of the Swedish economy

A new indicator of economic activity

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A new indicator of economic activity

The Business Survey indicator provides a similar picture of economic activity as other measures

Published: 27 October 2023

Figure 1 illustrates how the Business Survey indicator relates to four already available survey-based economic measures: The National Institute of Economic Research’s (NIER) Economic Tendency Survey, its confidence indicator for the total business sector (BS confidence indicator), the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the service sector and the PMI for the manufacturing industry.[12] The Economic Tendency Survey and the PMI are published on a monthly basis. Their series have been transformed into quarterly data and then standardised to a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one. The BS confidence indicator is published monthly and quarterly. The quarterly series has been used and has been standardised in the same way as the other series. These indicators are also based on data from the business sector (with the exception of the NIER's Economic Tendency Survey, which targets both companies and households) but are based on a much larger sample. [13] The Economic Tendency Survey is based on survey data from around 6,000 companies and around 1,500 households; the BS confidence indicator is based on survey data from around 6,000 companies; and the PMI (services and industry) is based on survey data from 200 purchasing managers. It therefore enhances the credibility of the Business Survey that the information summarised in the Business Survey indicator gives a similar picture of economic activity as those measures.

Figure 1. Survey-based indicators of economic activity Standardised units Survey-based indicators of economic activity
Source: NIER, the Riksbank, Statistics Sweden and Swedbank/SILF