Summary

This Economic Commentary^[1] Economic Commentaries are brief analyses of issues with relevance for the Riksbank. They may be written by individual members of the Executive Board or by employees at the Riksbank. Employees’ commentaries are approved by their head of department, while Executive Board members are themselves responsible for the content of the commentaries they write. presents a new indicator of economic activity based on the Riksbank's Business Survey. The Business Survey collects information about the Swedish business sector for use in the Riksbank's policy work. The new indicator of economic activity is a summarising measure of this information and aims to provide early signals on the development of the economy. The indicator correlates with GDP growth and has good predictive power for growth one quarter ahead. The commentary also examines the fact that GDP data are regularly revised. The results show that the indicator provides reliable signals for both the first and latest published GDP growth figures. It gives a similar picture of economic activity as other survey-based economic measures, which supports the interpretation that the Business Survey indicator can be used to estimate the state of the economy. Overall, the Business Survey and the information summarised in the indicator are deemed to provide both early and reliable insights into cyclical fluctuations of the economy.

Published: 27 October 2023