In the scenario, it is assumed that Swedish government bond rates are compatible with the expected policy rate (according to the so-called expectations hypothesis) and that maturity premiums are in line with historical averages. For the five-year government bond rate, this means that it will rise from the current level of around 1.5 per cent to just over 2.5 per cent in the coming years. More risky bonds included in the Riksbank's holdings, such as covered bonds and municipal bonds, are also assumed to be priced at risk premiums that are in line with historical averages.

We also assume that US and German government bond yields are developing in line with the current market pricing and central bank policy rates. US government bond yields have risen sharply in recent months and in the scenario remain at approximately the current level. German government bond yields have also risen somewhat from negative levels and are assumed in the scenario to continue rising more gradually in the coming years. We assume that the Swedish krona will strengthen marginally against the US dollar and the euro during the period.

In addition, we assume that the stock of banknotes and coins remains unchanged at the current level and that the foreign exchange loans from the Swedish National Debt Office are settled in line with the decision in February this year.^[38] See Sveriges riksbank (2022h). . The gold is managed passively, the level of foreign currency reserve assets (in foreign currency) is kept largely constant and the items with regard to the IMF that the Riksbank has on the balance sheet remain unchanged.

Figure 6. The Riksbank’s policy rate Per cent

Figure 7. Government bond yields Per cent

Figure 8. Exchange rates against the Swedish krona