The Riksbank's financial result and capital are affected by higher interest rates

Consequences of losses

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The Riksbank's financial result and capital are affected by higher interest rates

Consequences of losses

Published: 4 July 2022

It is still too early to express with any high degree of precision what the overall effect on the Riksbank's financial results will be from rising inflation and interest rates. Other central banks that have used their balance sheets for monetary policy purposes may also incur losses, but different ways of recording these losses may lead to them appearing in the central banks' reported results at different times. For example, quarterly reports from the Federal Reserve and the National Bank of Switzerland have shown that they have made unrealised value losses on their assets during the first quarter.[25] See Federal Reserve System (2022) and Swiss National Bank (2022). Since the Federal Reserve does not market value its assets, the reported result is not affected by unrealised losses. The unrealised value change is shown separately in the quarterly report. A scenario analysis indicates that the Bank of England may make repeated annual losses on its bond holdings in the coming years (although the overall result is expected to be positive, due to earlier gains).[26] See Busetto, o.a. (2022).

Even if the Riksbank makes a major loss, the ability to implement the desired monetary policy need not be affected. The Riksbank has capital buffers, in the form of previously unrealised gains, provisions, and equity, which strengthen the ability to resist losses. A central bank can always pay for itself in its own currency, and the central bank can even have a negative equity for a period of time and still function as usual.[27] See Archer & Moser-Boehm (2013)

However, there are potential negative consequences of large losses and low capital. Although the central bank has an unchanged capacity to implement monetary policy or liquidity support measures, a large loss may lead to speculation about the central bank's capacity. If the central bank is not clear in its communication in such a situation, it may lead to future monetary policy measures not having as good an impact as before.[28] See Archer & Moser-Boehm (2013). In addition, a low level of capital, combined with a small amount of cash and a small amount of seigniorage, may lead to a deterioration in the central bank's earnings and the possibility of being self-financed. This may in turn mean that the financial independence of the central bank is weakened.[29] This in turn is negative for the monetary independence of the central bank. The seigniorage is what the central bank earns in that outstanding banknotes and coins are a form of interest-free capital, on the liabilities side of the balance sheet, which contributes to the central bank gaining a favourable difference between the return on assets and the financing costs of the debts. Equity can also be regarded as interest-free.