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Better forecasting with AI-based models
02/04/2025 -AI-based models outperform traditional time series models in forecasting Swedish GDP and inflation. This is according to a survey conducted by economists at the Riksbank's Monetary Policy Department.
Energy price shocks had profound effects on Sweden's consumption patterns
23/04/2025 -In recent years, spending by individuals in Sweden has fluctuated a lot. Since 2022 these fluctuations can be linked to the large shock in the price of energy that followed cuts in the inflow of energy from Russia to Europe in the aftermath of...
The private equity industry is large, international and opaque
06/02/2025 -From an international standpoint, the Swedish private equity industry is notable for having relatively large private equity firms that manage capital from international investors. Analysis in a new Staff Memo shows that the private equity...
Does inflation rise when the policy rate is raised?
12/01/2024 -Although there is broad consensus that inflation falls when the central bank raises its policy rate, there are mechanisms and channels that may lead to the opposite effect. For example, interest rates also represent a cost for households and...
Swedish exports to the USA - which sectors are most affected by higher tariffs?
30/05/2025 -The Swedish economy is closely linked to the United States, both directly and through global value chains, and Swedish exports to the United States have increased in recent years. The United States is Sweden's third largest destination for...
Instant payments contribute to innovation and efficiency – how to manage risks to boost development
20/05/2025 -Consumers have become accustomed to instant payments and expect to be able to make transactions quickly and securely. The benefits of instant payments are many. For instance, they contribute to increased innovation and efficiency in the payments...
Staff Memo: Effects of monetary policy in small open economies
01/06/2026 -Inflation targeting has now been conducted in many small open economies, such as Sweden’s, for around three decades. A new staff memo analyses the impact of monetary policy on GDP, unemployment, inflation and exchange rates in ten countries with...
Banks’ profitability exceeds the market’s required return
11/06/2026 -The major Swedish banks have had strong earnings in relation to the risk that the equity market considers their operations to entail. This is shown in a new analysis that examines banks’ profitability in relation to an estimated market-based...
The money market is central to the implementation of monetary policy
21/08/2024 -In a new staff memo, the authors show that interest rates in the money market were affected in the way that could be expected when the Riksbank raised the policy rate in 2022 and 2023. The staff memo also illustrates transaction patterns,...
Alternative measures of labour market slack improve the analysis of inflation
08/11/2022 -Can alternative, more disaggregated measures of labour market slack improve inflation forecasts? Caroline Flodberg, Marie Hesselman and Mårten Löf investigate this issue in a Staff memo.