Development of the liquidity surplus
The liquidity surplus in the Swedish banking system vis-à-vis the Riksbank is declining as the Riksbank reduces its holdings of Swedish securities. This page illustrates how the surplus will evolve over the next three years.
The chart below presents the estimated liquidity surplus in the banking system over the next three years. The chart is not an exact forecast, but it gives an indicative illustration of the expected development of the liquidity surplus. The chart is updated monthly.
Chart: Development of the liquidity surplus over the next three years
Figure: Development of the liquidity surplus over the next three years
Source: The Riksbank
Methodology
The main factor affecting the liquidity surplus is the reduction in the Riksbank’s holdings of Swedish securities through sales and maturities. The chart takes into account all cash flows related to these holdings, including maturities, coupon payments and previously decided sales.
The liquidity surplus increases as interest is paid on the surplus. The interest rate applied is based on the forecast for the policy rate.
The calculation also incorporates the Riksbank's ongoing operating expenses. These increase the surplus.
The volume of banknotes and coins in circulation, which also affects the liquidity surplus, is assumed to remain unchanged over the period.
The chart excludes other factors that may affect the liquidity surplus, such as cash flows related to the hedging of the foreign exchange reserve.
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