Per Jansson: Focus on inflation in uncertain times
Presentation “The war in Iran is changing the conditions for monetary policy both in Sweden and abroad. In the Riksbank's main scenario, the war has a moderate impact on the forecasts for economic activity and inflation, but it is still unclear what the more long-term consequences will be and conditions can change rapidly. Overall, it was therefore reasonable to leave the policy rate and the interest rate path unchanged.” This is how Deputy Governor Per Jansson described his stance at the Riksbank's most recent monetary policy decision, when he spoke at Danske Bank on Tuesday.
Date: 31/03/2026 12:00
Speaker: Deputy Governor Per Jansson
Place: Danske Bank
Per Jansson, deputy governor.
Mr Jansson emphasised that the range of potential outcomes is very large and that his focus in these uncertain times is clearly on inflation.
Rising energy and input prices, in a situation of disruptions and breaks in important logistics chains in the Gulf region, can feed through into consumer prices relatively quickly. There is a risk of both indirect and second-round effects. “We all remember how quickly inflation rose in 2022 once pricing behaviour had changed. Of course, the situation is not yet as dramatic as it was then and there are a number of differences. But it is important to learn the lessons from that episode."
At the same time, he emphasised that the inflation outcomes and indicators of recent months show that inflationary pressures in Sweden are currently low. “This means that we can tolerate a certain increase in inflationary pressures without them becoming too high. It is in this context also very welcome that the economic recovery already gained traction last year.”
According to Mr Jansson, finding the right balance and timing in monetary policy is a challenge under current circumstances. ”In this situation, it is important not to act hastily and then have to make a U-turn, or to be late and fall behind the curve.”
He therefore considered it appropriate to adopt a wait-and-see approach at the most recent monetary policy meeting in March. “It is positive that we have lowered the policy rate to what we believe is a mildly expansionary level. This allows us to adjust monetary policy promptly, if necessary, to make it either more expansionary or contractionary.”