Riksbank Study: Evaluation of the Riksbank's forecasts
News The Riksbank and other forecasters have, on average, overestimated GDP growth and inflationary pressures in Sweden over the past 10 years. The accuracy of the Riksbank’s forecasts for CPIF inflation has been in line with the average among all forecasters, while the Riksbank's forecasts for the repo rate and CPI inflation have been among the least accurate. For 2016, the Riksbank overestimated CPIF inflation more than others, especially with regard to the forecasts made at the beginning of 2015.
The Riksbank has, in recent years, made relatively good shorter-term inflation forecasts, both in relation to other forecasters and in relation to historical forecasting errors. But the Riksbank shows relatively low accuracy for inflation in forecasts more than one year ahead. The Riksbank's forecasts for GDP growth and unemployment have been relatively accurate, both over the last ten-year period and for 2016.
In this Riksbank study, we evaluate the Riksbank's forecasts for inflation and other economic variables for 2016. The Riksbank's forecasts are also compared with the forecasts made by other forecasters over a longer period, from 2007 to 2016. The study is a complement to the report Account of Monetary Policy, 2016.