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Inflation rose rapidly
19/01/2024 -Inflation rose rapidly After many years of low inflation, consumer prices rose rapidly in 2021 and 2022 and inflation reached the highest levels in over 30 years. The inflation target, like the Riksbank's the forecasting ability, was tested to...
When did the central banks start adjusting their inflation forecasts for 2022 upwards?
19/01/2024 -When did the central banks start adjusting their inflation forecasts for 2022 upwards? Figure 5 shows the Riksbank's and other central banks' forecasting errors (outcome minus forecast) for each country's inflation target variable for 2022. Here...
Summary – in principle, a dead heat between the central banks
19/01/2024 -Summary – in principle, a dead heat between the central banks It is difficult to make forecasts when conditions change drastically. This becomes clear when we study the forecasts of ten central banks for inflation in 2021 and 2022. We observe...
References
19/01/2024 -References Australian Government (2023), “An RBA fit for the future”, The Australian Government Review of the Reserve Bank of Australia Report. Bordo, Michael and Mickey Levy (2022) "The Fed's Monetary Policy Exit Once Again behind the Curve",...
APPENDIX – Inflation forecasts and outcomes
19/01/2024 -APPENDIX – Inflation forecasts and outcomes Webbrapport bildblock - Figure 7. Australia. CPI, outcomes and Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecastsAnnual percentage change Webbrapport bildblock - Figure 8. Euro area. HCPI, outcomes and European...
Summary
27/10/2023 -Summary This Economic Commentary[1] Economic Commentaries are brief analyses of issues with relevance for the Riksbank. They may be written by individual members of the Executive Board or by employees at the Riksbank. Employees’ commentaries are...
Important to have timely data on the development of the economy
27/10/2023 -Important to have timely data on the development of the economy It is important for decision-makers to have access to timely information on economic conditions. Official statistics are published with some delay, so it is important to be able to...
The Business Survey collects information through in-depth interviews
27/10/2023 -The Business Survey collects information through in-depth interviews Since 2007, economists at the Riksbank have been meeting with company representatives to discuss their company's current situation and how the situation is expected to change...
A new indicator of economic activity
27/10/2023 -A new indicator of economic activity The companies' responses to eleven of the Survey's central questions form the basis of the Riksbank's new indicator of economic activity. The questions concern companies' perception of the economic situation,...
The Business Survey indicator provides a similar picture of economic activity as other measures
27/10/2023 -The Business Survey indicator provides a similar picture of economic activity as other measures Figure 1 illustrates how the Business Survey indicator relates to four already available survey-based economic measures: The National Institute of...